For those of you that play dynasty fantasy football, you understand the importance of acquiring players at a reasonable price before their cost skyrockets.
Dynasty Radar by Brian Bailey (@TheFFAviator) is a new monthly series that will provide you with a few players who may still be on your waiver wire or ones you can trade for at a minimal cost.
2020 has been a challenging year in the world and one to definitely forget. The upcoming NFL season was one that was being looked forward to by many. Now that the season has begun, the headaches of injuries and Covid-19 have surfaced. Within the first few weeks, it has already turned into a year of big name injuries and scrambling to figure out what direction your team is going. No matter what has happened to your team to start the 2020 season, I am here to help you out by letting you know what guys should be on your dynasty radar.
DJ Moore - WR Carolina Panthers
DJ Moore has to be one of the most disappointing wide receiver performers so far this year. I was buying him where I could this off-season in hopes that the addition of Head Coach Matt Rhule and new quarterback Teddy “Two Gloves” Bridgewater, Moore would be able to take that next step into becoming a top 12 wide receiver. Which is where you need him to be for the investment cost. From January to September, Moore had an overall ADP that was between pick 14-19 in startup drafts. He had a WR ADP between 4-9 during that time! Seems like a pretty steep price for a guy that is currently producing as the WR30 .
So what is going on in Carolina? It can’t be that DJ Moore’s isn’t as talented as we thought he was. In 2019, he was top ten in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and yards after the catch. As disappointing as things have been so far for Moore’s season, he has been getting the targets that we look for. Moore has led the team in targets through 3 weeks and has 50% of the teams intended air yards! All the Robby Anderson is the WR1 people can simmer down. On the surface, it looks like DJ Moore has a bad catch rate at only 53% of his targets. However, when we look a little deeper, of Moore’s 26 targets only 16 of them were even catchable! So his true catch rate is right at 86% similar to last year.
We shouldn’t be panicking on DJ Moore. He is on pace for more yards and similar targets as his 2019 season. You can look at the targets not being catchable and be panicked but I wouldn't. Bridgewater is a capable quarterback and in 2019 had one of the highest deep ball completion percentages in the league. To me this can all be chalked up to Covid-19 and the lack of pre-season to get in sync between the two. I will be going out in my leagues and seeing if I can acquire DJ Moore at a discount from a nervous manager.
Anthony Miller - WR Chicago Bears
With some people in the industry talking up rookie wide receiver Darnel Mooney, some of the hype that Anthony Miller received in the off season has faded. Yes, Mooney has had a surprising amount of snaps for a rookie, but Anthony Miller has still been getting lots of high value targets. Miller has the second in average depth of target in the NFL only behind Marquez Valdes-Scantling (wide receivers with 10 targets or more). Miller is also leading the Bears in red zone targets and TDs. He is also tied for 3rd in red zone targets for wide receivers in the NFL. With the benching of Mitch Trubisky, there will hopefully be better targets distributed to the wide receivers in Chicago.
Anthony Miller could be a good addition as a throw in on a trade or a cheap depth buy. As we have seen with all the injuries and games being cancelled (due to Covid-19) to start the 2020 season, the league winners this year may be the teams with the last guys standing. If I want a cheap guy on my bench in case I need a spot start, the best guys to have are ones with big play ability and touchdown upside.
Mo Alie-Cox - TE Indianapolis Colts
Buy Mo Alie-Cox! He immediately seized the opportunity and produced in week two when Jack Doyle went down. In that first game he exploded for five catches and 111 yards. He currently leads the team in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.
One of the biggest predictors of successful production for wide receivers and tight ends is yards per route run. Mo Alie-Cox is currently leading all active tight ends in this metric that have more than 5 targets. Any value over 2.0 is considered good. The big man is currently sitting at 4.41! The next highest is Jonnu Smith at 2.66. He is going to continue to produce.
At 6’5” and 267 pounds, Alie-Cox is a big target for Philip Rivers. He is catching 90% of the passes coming his way. He is reliable and is going to be leaned on with the run game and how banged up the Colts WR core is. You still might be able to get him as a throw in on a deal or even a 2021 third round pick off an unassuming manager that just got him off waivers.
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October Strength of Schedule Boost
Now that we are a quarter of the way through the fantasy football regular season, you may be looking for a way to shake things up if you are in dire need of a win. Here are some of the strongest strengths of schedules for a few positions. If you are totally in a pinch and need to trade for someone with some good matchups, these are a few to consider acquiring.
Ok, so this one may seem a little gross and make you want to throw up … but hear me out. If you are looking for a QB that will cost you very little to acquire and has an advantageous schedule in the month of October, you could do worse than looking at Kirk Cousins. If you are laughing at me right now - I totally get it. We also did this song and dance last year. We got really worried last year when the first game Cousins came out and only threw 10 times! Through the first four weeks in 2019, Cousins was sitting at QB26. That’s not good Bob! But if you bailed out on him at that point, then you sold at his absolute low. Over the remainder of the fantasy season, Cousins was the QB10. On the menu for Cousins in week five and six is a feast of the two teams giving up the most points to the quarterback position - the Seattle Seahawks in week 5 and the Atlanta Falcons in Week 6. Not only do these teams hemorrhage points to quarterbacks, but they also have highly potent offences, possibly forcing the Vikings to play catch up all game … well that and Minnesota's abysmal defense of their own. Minnesota does have a bye in week 7 but then have another plus matchup against Green Bay in week 8. Like I said, you can do worse than Cousins!
The best strength of schedule on paper is the Carolina Panthers. However, I couldn’t live with myself for suggesting a team that has only targeted their number one tight end four times so far on the season. Instead, the second best strength of schedule for the tight end position in October belongs to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They play three games in a row with plus matchups against teams giving up a lot of points to the tight end position. Eric Ebron just had a 20% target share and scoring 16.2 PPR points in week three. Ebron isn’t looked upon as a high end asset in the dynasty community and if he can help you at that tight end position with a high market share and touchdown upside, then he is worth looking at in a trade.
Thank you for reading my October Dynasty Radar article and be sure to check out all of the great written work from the team at True North. Do you agree or disagree with any of my choices? Please leave a comment or message me on Twitter @TheFFAviator
Editor: Joe Simonetti (@joesimonetti77)
Graphic work: Dan Made Graphics (@DanMadeGraphics)