Dynasty Radar - June Edition
After a brief hiatus, Brian (@TheFFAviator) returns to bring you the first edition of the Dynasty Radar for 2021. If you are new to reading this series, Brian will be looking at Fantasy Football Dynasty Buys and Sells based on ADP and situations throughout the year. As well, he will suggest players that you should keep an eye on, as their situations and their value may be headed for a change.
In most cases, your rookie drafts have already taken place for your existing leagues. If not, congratulations for having self control. Because most are completed and everyone thinks that every pick that they made is the next Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, or the next James Robinson; we are just going to move past the rookies for now. Later we will be looking at how the rosters are looking as we get news from training camps.
Hopefully you have also been following my tweets. Back on April 4th, I tweeted out a Dynasty Radar Thread about Joe Mixon. With luck, you were able to catch it back then when Mixon was a buy at an Average Draft Position (ADP) of RB21. He has since risen to RB13 in Dynasty League Football’s May ADP. Check out the thread here and read the points I laid out. You may still be able to trade for Mixon at a value from a hesitant manager.
Time to Sell
J.K. Dobbins - RB Baltimore Ravens
This pains me to say because he was one of my favorite running backs to come into the NFL last season. However, right now J.K. Dobbins is going off the board as the RB12 in Dynasty League Football's May ADP. I know some of you are making a little smirk and thinking in your head, “Yeah but he is so elusive with the No. 5 juke rate and No. 1 breakaway run rate! And how can you deny that he was No. 1 in yards per carry?” Well, what it comes down to is he isn’t the only guy in Baltimore and he doesn’t catch enough passes.
It’s too bad because Dobbins was one of the most well rounded running backs to come out last year. The issue is that the offense that Baltimore runs isn’t one that passes to the running back. Last year the Ravens offense threw to the running backs the second least in the NFL, only behind the Titans. Dobbins only had 18 receptions for 120-yards. Therefore, if he isn’t going to get into the RB1 conversation on receptions he has to do it on volume or touchdowns. Neither of which he is going to get.
Lamar Jackson was the Ravens leading rusher in attempts, yards and redzone attempts. The only stat Dobbins won out on was touchdowns with nine, and on only 134-attempts he is a regression candidate. Then you add in the fact that Gus Edwards got pretty much the same amount of touches and was almost as efficient; it makes it very hard to see Dobbins turning into more than a high end RB2.
A few pivots that I have done are as follows:
I moved on from Dobbins and a late 2021-1st for Clyde Edwards-Helaire and an early 2021-1st.
And I pivoted off Dobbins where I added a late 2021-2nd to snag Najee Harris in the draft. You might even be able to do the swap without adding to it.
I think Harris has a higher upside with the Pittsburgh Steelers’ history of leaning on one guy and his use in the passing game.
Jared Goff - QB Detroit Lions
This offseason we saw Jared Goff being shipped off to the Detroit Lions so that the L.A. Rams could bring in veteran Matthew Stafford with the hope that he could win them a Super Bowl.
Goff’s situation is not looking good in his new home. He is leaving a very skilled pass catching core to go to Detroit, where theirs (outside of Hockenson), looks to have been put together with duct tape and bailing wire. He isn’t being set up to succeed and you should get out now. If you can sell Goff off on the story that Detroit's defense is so bad that he is going to have to throw and he is going to have a good fantasy season, do it! I am trying to package pieces to Goff to upgrade him in any way. I would gladly add my 1st rounder next year to Goff, if I could pivot to a player like Tua in a Super Flex League.
I would even look at a team that might have Tom Brady.
It's possible that you could make a package where you have two players in the same tier along with Goff and Brady. The Brady manager may think he is getting a better deal while getting younger, even though Brady probably has more years left as a starter. Get out before Goff is the next Trubisky.
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Time to Buy
Diontae Johnson - WR Pittsburgh Steelers
Last season was a murky mess for the Steelers pass game. Even then, Johnson put up a WR21 season. Heading into this year, most are very down on the Pittsburg passing game.
However, I don’t think they should be.
I don’t think that the Steelers will be throwing the ball over 600 times this year, but I do believe that the passing game will become more efficient than last year. Ben Roethlisberger threw for a low 7.4 average depth of target. This was caused by a struggling running game not providing the team a balanced attack. The Steelers in 2020 were the second highest pass team, throwing on 65% of their plays.
While I still believe they will be one of the higher pass heavy teams in the league, this year the pressure will be taken off by the addition of their new dynamic running back, Najee Harris. With having a more balanced attack and upgrades on their offensive line, the Steelers will be able to open up their attack and not have such a short depth of target.
Big Ben should continue to lean on his No. 1 wide receiver in Johnson. In the games that Johnson played over 50% of the snaps, he was averaging over 10 targets a game!
That is exactly the kind of targets we want from a WR1.
Will Fuller - WR Miami Dolphins
I have never been a Will Fuller guy. Personally, he has always had too high of a price tag for someone that has had so many injuries. Now, I’m sure you have heard this from many others, but I don’t hate players! I hate their ADP’s!
With that in mind, consider that things are different this year.
In the May ADP he was going as the WR46, and I could see this number going down with the rookie hype and Jaylen Waddle landing on the Miami Dolphins. This is going way too far and I am buying him at this price. I just drafted him in a startup as the fifty-ninth wide receiver off the board. This points to people being even lower on Fuller than his May ADP.
The hate has gone too far.
Fuller, while having a history of injuries, produced when on the field. From the data on RotoVis.com, Fuller has finished as a top-10 WR 38% of the time. For comparison, Tyreek Hill has finished as a top-10 WR in 16% of the games he has played.
(Image from RotoVis.com)
For someone that has had that kind of proven production to be going so low is criminal. You can grab Fuller and have him as a bench player. Having that kind of upside from a bench player is an advantage you need to jump on.
Now, some people may be skeptical about how he is going to fit in with Tua Tagovailoa and not having Deshaun Watson throwing him the ball anymore. However, I think Tua is going to like Fuller as a target.
During interviews last year, Tua talked about how he wasn’t used to his receivers not being as open as they were at Alabama -- and what did the Dolphins staff do? They went out and got one of the best perimeter separators in Fuller and also drafted Jaylen Waddle.
With these additional weapons for Tua and a second year in the system, Tua should open it up and become more efficient in the passing game. Some people will try and tell you that Tua can’t push the ball downfield. Don’t listen to them. We have seen him be more than capable of pushing the ball with the Crimson Tide.
In 2018 he was only behind Kyler Murray in Yards Per Attempt at the collegiate level. He had 11.2-yards per attempt, while throwing for nearly 4,000-yards, 43 touchdowns, and only six interceptions. While I don’t see the same production coming from Fuller at his new home in Miami, as a bench wide receiver he is definitely worth taking a shot on.
This all leads me into my next buy.
Tua Tagovailoa - QB Miami Dolphins
There seems to be some dissatisfaction to how Tua’s rookie season went in the Dynasty community.
Last season, there were lots of people that thought he would sit for the entire year behind Ryan Fitzpatrick after coming back from a horrific hip injury that he suffered in his final year at Alabama. Somehow the phrase “Tank for Tua” disappeared from our memory like a teenage Friday night.
Now like I mentioned above in the Will Fuller section, Tagovailoa has been given some serious new weapons. Players that can actually get open, instead of being forced to throw to a disappointing DeVante Parker and a lackluster group of Jakeem Grant, Preston Williams, and Isaiah Ford. This group of guys were all drafted in the sixth round or later.
Tua is an accurate quarterback that is going to be able to carve up defenses now that he has weapons that can separate. He is going into 2021 healthier with a second year in the system, a better offensive line, and serious weapons around him.
I foresee Tagovailoa making a jump in his second year with the Dolphins and having a value jump this season.
Thank you for reading my article. Do you agree or disagree with any of my Dynasty Buys or Sells? Please leave a comment or message me @TheFFAviator
Editors: Nate Williams (@Nate_FFL) & Joe Simonetti (@joesimonetti77)
Graphic work: Dan Made Graphics (@DanMadeGraphics)