Good W.I.L.L Hunting - Week 3 Waiver Wire
Every Tuesday, @TrueNorthFFB's very own Will Harris @itsharristime will be providing you with his W.I.L.L (Weekly Insights to Lead Your League). He’ll provide an in-depth positional look at the top waiver wire adds of theweek that are rostered on less than 40% of Yahoo leagues. @itsharristime will also give you three Professor Lambeau Picks just in case you cannot get the recommended waiver add for each position. How Bout Dem’ Apples looks at the stat lines of last week’s waiver wire insights and how @itsharristime fared.
This week hurt. Literally. The list of injuries that mounted during Week 2 is astounding. In counting before MNF football, there had been FIFTEEN reported injuries from the Sunday slate. And these weren’t minor ones in terms of the injuries or the players that it impacted. Saquon Barkley is OUT for the season with a confirmed ACL tear that requires surgery. Christian McCaffery has just been deemed out for up to 4-6 weeks with an ankle injury. Courtland Sutton is finished for the season with a torn ACL. 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garopollo is banged up with an ankle injury and RB Raheem Mostert has a sprained MCL. The bad news doesn’t stop coming in San Francisco - Tevin Coleman is already ruled out for Week 3 with an MCL sprain. Chiefs wide receiver Sammy Watkins is hurt. Tyrod Taylor was injured pre-game and rookie Justin Herbert was a last second replacement. This isn’t covering all injuries on offense, but the most relevant for fantasy. The rash of injuries on the defensive side of the ball will also play a role this season with dominant DE Nick Bosa out for the 49ers, and LB Anthony Barr is also done for the Vikings. These aren’t players that can be easily replaced and will impact how the game is played on both sides of the ball.
Now let’s do our best to replace them on waivers this week!
Jeff Driskel *MUST ADD IN SUPERFLEX* - rostered @ 0%, Denver Broncos
Since you are reading my second week of “Good W.I.L.L Hunting,” I’m going to go out on a limb and say that you’ve already snagged Gardner Minshew, who was QB9 (25.6 fantasy points) in week 2 versus a Titans defense that is no slouch. He is the real deal. With upcoming games against Miami, Cincinnati, Houston and Detroit before the Jaguars Week 7 bye, lock Minshew in.
And if you didn’t heed my advice? I get it. We are just getting started and the trust hasn’t been established yet. You are here now in the ‘itsharristime trust tree’ with the branches and the nest. You can feel safe and secure.
Now, let’s get dangerous! Let’s talk Jeff Driskel. This will be an add only for Superflex leagues. I don’t see Driskel being picked up in your single quarterback leagues as there are multiple better options (listed below).
For the Superflex players out there, Driskel is a must add. He looked poised after Drew Lock was viciously sacked by the Steelers Bud Dupree and left the game with a shoulder injury. Driskel stepped in and went 18/34 for 256 yards and 2 touchdowns while tossing one interception. Not bad for the backup QB.
Remember that Driskel was also relevant when filling in for Matthew Stafford last season with the Lions. Driskel has a 90th percentile speed score, and he has used his legs posting rushing totals of 37, 51, and 63. This type of rushing upside is what we love to see in QBs, and in Superflex, you could do a lot worse with Driskel as your second QB. Shoulder injuries for players are always tough to rehab, especially when it happens to a QB on their throwing shoulder.
Now, for you single QB diehards, please pick up one of the Professor’s picks below and forget that I ever said the name “Jeff Driskel.”
Professor Lambeau’s Picks
Gardner Minshew - 31%, Jacksonville Jaguars
Kirk Cousins, 35% - Minnesota Vikings
Mitchell Trubisky, 7% - Chicago Bears
Mike Davis - 4%, Carolina Panthers
Christian McCaffrey is the closest to a sure thing you can get in fantasy football. The consensus 1.01 in fantasy drafts this year, CMC was to be a turnkey 30+ fantasy points player each and every week. McCaffrey had been Mr. Ironman for the Panthers and week 3 will be the first game he’s missed since being drafted in 2017.
True to the norms of 2020, CMC was clipped on his second touchdown of the game and is now sidelined 4-6 weeks with the much feared “high ankle sprain.” No sugar coating it - this is not good for CMC fantasy teams.
The only saving grace? There is probably a 0% chance that his replacement, Mike Davis is rostered in any of your redraft leagues.
You have to dig even deeper to see when and where he was drafted. Davis was drafted by the 49ers out of South Carolina state at the end of the 4th round in 2015. He’s now considered a ‘journeyman’ with stops in San Francisco (2 years), Seattle (2 years) and the failed Chicago experiment last season. I was all aboard the Mike Davis hype train when he signed with Chicago as his path to touches was much clearer than the forever muddled Pete Carrol Seattle backfield. It didn’t pan out in Chicago as the Bears spent high draft capital on David Montgomery, and the ineptness of Matt Nagy to put together a competent offense impacted all Bears players not named Allen Robinson. Davis signed in the off-season with Carolina and for many was an afterthought playing behind Iron Man and reigning fantasy MVP Christian McCaffrey.
Now is the time to go all in on the former Gamecock. Davis slid into CMC’s role after the star went down in the 4th quarter versus the Buccaneers on Sunday. He’s not CMC, nor, should we under any circumstances expect him to be. What we do expect is for him to get significant work in the passing game from Teddy Bridgewater and for a team that will be trailing in A LOT in games. This held true to Davis’ role last Sunday. He was targeted 8 times and reeled in each one for 74 yards en route to a 15.40 fantasy point performance in the 4th quarter. Mix in a touchdown and Davis’ 4th quarter would have been a top ten RB performance in Week 2.
Davis wins with his quickness (76th percentile agility score) which lends itself well to the receiving game. In 2018, Davis made the most of the opportunity given to him by the Seahawks. Only seeing a 38% snap share, Davis still put up over 500 rushing yards, 5 TDs and 214 receiving yards. In his only game above a 65% snap share in Week 4 versus the Cardinals, Davis put up 28.4 fantasy points. Though the sample size is extremely limited, we know that Davis can produce in the passing game and given the Panthers lack of defense, there will be a lot of passing in Carolina this season.
Go get Davis!
Professor Lambeau’s Picks
Jerick McKinnon - 21%, San Francisco 49ers
Dion Lewis - 4%, New York Giants
Devonta Freeman - 14%, Free Agent
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Russel Gage - 21%, Atlanta Falcons
I expected Gage’s ownership to skyrocket after his Week 1 performance (9 receptions, 114 yards for 20.4 fantasy points) where he soared in the #3 wide receiver role for the Atlanta Falcons. In week 2, he was targeted 9 more times and had 6 catches for 46 yards and a touchdown en route to a 16.60 fantasy point performance. Gage needs to be rostered in all formats.
Our sample size for Gage goes back to last season where he stepped up when Austin Hooper went down late in the season. In weeks 12-13 while Hooper was out, Gage was targeted 10 and 9 times respectively while producing as a solid WR2 (15.6 fantasy points & 16.2 fantasy points). With the four game sample size we are given, we can surmise that Gage is a solid fantasy producer when given volume.
There is no way that Gage will be around for another week. Add him now or forever hold your peace!
Professor Lambeau’s Picks
Chase Claypool- 5%, Pittsburgh Steelers
Keelan Cole - 2%, Jacksonville Jaguars
Tre’Quan Smith - 11%, New Orleans Saints
Drew Sample - 1%, Cincinnati Bengals
I mentioned Sample on the first episode of the Jet Sweep Show as my teaser waiver add for this week. Before you get worked up about Jordan Reed and his performance this past week, he isn’t on top of my TE waiver adds. Please remember - George Kittle is still the best tight end in football and will be back.
Sample doesn’t need to worry about anyone challenging him for touches and targets. C.J Uzomah went down with an Achilles tear and is done for the season. With an already ambiguous receiving situation (Green, Boyd, Tate, Ross!?), the consistency that rookie QB Joe Burrow has established throwing to the TE position, is a vote of confidence in Sample as a priority waiver wire add.
Bengals tight ends have soaked up 22.4% of the total teams targets, and Sample+Uzomah combined for 139 yards. With Uzomah now out, and the tight end position being used heavily by Burrow, these consolidated targets to Sample will lead to more fantasy production.
Talking with Bengals insiders before the season, they were telling me that Sample was going to be THE guy. I initially dismissed the hype with the veteran and hyper athletic Uzomah clearly ahead of Sample on the depth chart to start the season. This injury has made me analyze Sample more, and he checks quite a few boxes. He’s got draft capital, having been drafted in the 2nd round at pick 52. Sample also checks the athletic box, having a 78th percentile speed score and an above average agility score which has proven critical for these big men to be successful. Another plus to Sample, is that he is not a rookie. Sample has had a full year in the league to understand the nuances of the tight end position. These are all important pieces to put together when analyzing a potential fantasy breakout at tight end.
Sample checks all the following boxes:
Rookie QB that uses TE as safety outlet
Not a rookie
No competition at TE
Ambiguous receiving corps
With Sample slated to play the Eagles in Week 4 and Jacksonville in Week 5, now is the time to grab the second year TE.
Professor Lambeau’s Picks
Jordan Reed - 26%, San Francisco 49ers
Dalton Schultz - 1%, Dallas Cowboys
Tyler Eifert - 10%, Jacksonville Jaguars
How Bout Dem’ Apples?
Gardner Minshew, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars - 25.46 f/pts, 339 Yds, 2 TDs
Jerick McKinnon, RB, San Francisco 49ers - 13.70 f/pts, 77 Yds, 1 TD
Robby Anderson, WR, Carolina Panthers - 17.90 f/pts, 109 Yds, 9 receptions
Logan Thomas, TE, The Washington Football Team - 6.6 f/pts, 9 targets, 26 Yds
Thank you for reading my waiver wire article. Make sure to come back next week and please leave a comment or message me on Twitter @itsharristime
Edited by: Joe Simonetti (@joesimonetti77)
Graphic work: Dan Made Graphics (@DanMadeGraphics)