Ty's Mock Draft Picks 1-16
QB / JOE BURROW (LSU)
Months ago I harbored tiny reservations around the same time his tiny hands came to light. Remember? Several outlets were skipping along narrative lane suggesting Joe Burrow could have a former Bengals quarterback in his ear (Who's brother he was training with!) Jordan Palmer's feelings about the Bengals aren't known but Carson has sure told us what-he-really thinks, and... He aint wrong?
As dreadful as the Bengals franchise may be Joe Burrow is the most solidified 1st overall pick since Andrew Luck and Cincinnati holds the ticket.
True North will have a full analysis on Joe Burrow to the Bengals separately because the impact is endless especially for Superflex leagues.
EDGE / CHASE YOUNG (OHIO STATE)
Washington does not have a 2nd round pick and considering their Swiss cheese roster plus a brand new coaching staff, a trade down isn't outlandish to consider. Trent Williams being traded to Cleveland for the 41st pick in the 2nd round isn't either. Range of outcomes aside the ability to pressure the QB is priority one on defense and Chase Young is the best in show (I'm sure Terry McLaurin has told them all about it) With former Bears linebacker Rivera at the wheel I'm putting faith in that linebacker room in Washington and if they can play up to their potential their defensive front will be mean!
- Chargers receive #3 and #56 / Lions receive #6 + #37 + #112 + 2021 2nd round pick
LOS ANGELS CHARGERS
QB / TUA TAGOVAILOA (ALABAMA)
The Chargers all of a sudden seem to be the most interested in Tua. The apprehension rests in Miami being connected to Tua for the previous 18 months and the Dolphins controlling 10% of the draft in the top 56 picks. I truly believe Tua will go 3rd overall I just have less conviction predicting weather he'll be a Charger or a Dolphin.
For Fantasy, lesser discussed is both teams have a QB on the roster who could play ahead of Tua to start the season and also possess bottom 10 offensive lines. The Chargers line is stronger than Miami's but the Dolphins are in a far better position to address that need through the draft (Teaser)
NEW YORK GIANTS
OT / TRISTAN WIRFS (IOWA)
This is a common selection in mock drafts but there are two hiccups on the horizon. Nobody cares about my draft day prop bets but the odds are illuminating! The Giants are +100 to draft a tackle but they're +125 to draft Isaiah Simmons! That margin is not reflective of the mock drafts or the conversation surrounding the Giants pick. Once upon a time the Giants prioritized the once upon a time position-less 1st round pick Jabrill Peppers in the OBJ trade. Simmons ceiling is on another level and his play making upside would mix well with the rebuilt secondary.
The Giants have to address the tackle position though. Daniel Jones ball security was unbearable in his rookie season and I'm not sure he would feel pressure if he was on the seabed of the Mariana Trench. Tristan Wirfs is the best tackle in the draft but if Gettleman wasn't there I may have made this selection Jedrick Wills because of the Joe Judge- Nick Saban Alabama connection.
OT / JEDRICK WILLS (ALABAMA)
The Dolphins rolled out the worst offensive line by any metric in 2019, and Miami's line allowed pressure in 2.22 seconds on average according to PFF (Think 3 steamboats!) 33% of the time they allowed pressure in 2.5 seconds or less. Wills is not the freak athlete of a Becton but has athleticism and unquestionable strength. If there was a debate in Miami Mekhi Becton's flagged drug sample could have solidified their decision. They've already tried the whole, take a tackle who has some controversy leading into the draft.
Chris Grier and Brian Flores strike me as no nonsense brass too. Both come from scouting backgrounds that started in the Patriots organization and they could choose to secure a possible franchise tackle before quarterback. As far as adding a QB, where there's a Wills there's a way! (Another teaser)
CB / JEFF OKUDAH (OHIO STATE)
The Slay ride came to an end this offseason so the Lions trade back and select the CB who's arguably the only difference maker at the position in the 2020 draft. The upside is Detroit just took their opponents best player in the passing game out of the equation on a weekly basis. I said putting pressure on the QB in priority one, shutdown cover corners are a very close second. His influence in a game will be more significant than Derrick Brown or even Isaiah Simmons (The other two most likely selections for the Lions)
- Dolphins acquire #7 + #69 and 2021 5th / Panthers receive #18 + #26 and 2021 3rd
QB / JUSTIN HERBERT (OREGON)
If the Dolphins are keen on Justin Herbert as the market suggests this outcome would be ideal. Securing their tackle of the future and using their two other picks in round one to move up with a Panthers team looking to start fresh. It's a trade that makes sense for both teams and Carolina is in phenomenal shape to spark a bidding war for the 7th pick in the draft meanwhile Miami has the most ammunition to appease (Even after making a top 5 pick at that point!)
I'll save my thoughts on Herbert for now but this selection hints to my mock draft NOT being a "what I would do" style mock draft. His Upside for fantasy is undisputed inferring what Herbert will add with his legs.
LB or S / ISAIAH SIMMONS (CLEMSON)
This pick is tricky because Isaiah Simmons is on the board. The Cardinals desperately need to address tackle. Some could argue the Cardinals did well in free agency up front, not unlike last off season but it's hard not to regard them as a bottom 10 unit still. Arizona also traded their 2nd round pick in the Nuk Hopkins deal nudging them even more towards the offensive line with the 8th overall pick. Nevertheless Kyler Murray was responsible for more sacks than the line was to be honest and his ability to slip and escape lends to devaluing the offensive line to an extent.
Bottom line Isaiah Simmons fit what they need perfectly. They need a play maker in the middle of the field and improving their defense will go a long way to improving the offense, particularly for fantasy football. The displeasure in the desert was the play volume! The play volume was devastating because the Cardinals defense were 2nd worst in time of possession while allowing the most yards to opposing offenses. Simmons is the pick and a historically bad season vs the tight end position won't repeat in 2020 if that's so!
DT / DERRICK BROWN (AUBURN)
The slide stops. Derrick Brown slides because he's best against the run and could have limitations rushing the passer at the next level. Jacksonville no longer has Marcel Dareus and even post Ramsey trade their Achilles heel was run defense.
The Jags have a multitude of options at this pick including trading down. They could draft the 2nd corner off the board to attend to the Ramsey departure or take advantage of Becton's slide and kick Cam Robinson inside improving their bottom 10 offensive line. Aside from Brandon Linder that line is very concerning. The Jags could be team drafting QB as well. The funny money for Tua is on Jacksonville! And they're the Vegas odds favorite for Jordan Love's landing spot unannounced to most. Wide receiver seems like a lower probability than all those I listed by the way.
Uncertainty is the sum of all parts in Jacksonville, or London!? Starting at the top David Caldwell and Doug Marrone (*Take a bow for avoiding a moron joke) Those two have as little job security as anybody and their former top 5 pick in Leonard Fournette is on the outs who will command extremely low return on the trade market. After jettisoning their best defensive player their next best in Yannick Ngakoue has demanded a trade (Who will garner a substantial return) For a team who could use the Ramsey capital, the imminent Ngokoue capital plus the 9th and 20th picks in this draft to set themselves up in 2021 better than Miami is this draft even, it's unfortunate the GM and coaching staff are assuredly operating with their job security in mind.
OT / MEKHI BECTON (LOUISVILLE)
After Cam Robinson trafficked his way out of the picture, tackling the tackle position is a must for Cleveland. His absence is compounded by what we saw from the Browns up front this past season (Kevin Zeitler was crucial to the offensive line success in 2018) Joel Bitonio is still elite and J.C. Tretter played at as high of a level as he had in 2018 yet the Browns decline on the offensive line was drastic last year. There's built in upside in pass protection with Bitonio and Tretter on the roster making Becton a perfect fit. Offensive tackles quietly take longer to develop compared to most positions in the NFL and Becton is raw... and possibly too damn heavy at his current weight. On the other side he can contribute immediately in the run game and in his biggest area for improvement, pass pro, he'll have some of the best in the biz to learn from beside him.
Andrew Thomas is connected to Cleveland more often and I hope Thomas lands in a zone scheme similar to one Stefanski is set to roll out in Ohio but the drug test could offer them a tackle with far more upside in Mekhi Becton. The new Browns GM did say on Monday that Beckton's drug test would factor into their decision making however they met with him at the combine and again virtually so they clearly love this kid... This 6'7, 370 pound kid.
NEW YORK JETS
WR / JERRY JEUDY (ALABAMA)
Versatility and upside justify Jerry Jeudy as the both the first WR off the board and the best play for the Jets. They signed Perriman to stretch the field and he can do that, Jamison Crowder is a very poor man's Jerry Jeudy and he's been Darnold's locked in target. That's about all she wrote though. The Jets have the worst WR room in football and tehy can add multiple elements to their receiver unit with the addition of Jeudy. He fits anywhere in this offense weather it's as a perimeter WR or in the slot. It remains to be seen if he will develop into that alpha WR for an offense and I'd scale back expectations so far as spiked TD seasons, but his floor is very safe.
Jeudy offers polish no other WR in this class can and he does posses big play upside. His 73 catches of 15+ yards ranks top 5 in the class along with metrics like YPRR, YPR and total TD rate. A tickling fact regarding the big plays; Jeudy actually had a better explosive passing play % compared to teammate Henry Ruggs (Percent of their catches to go 15+ yards) The big plays, safe floor, extremely young age ability to play anywhere in the formation make Jerry Jeudy a can't miss prospect.
In an Adam Gase offense his fantasy upside and my personal interest will depend heavily on his price in drafts though.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
WR / CEEDEE LAMB (OKLAHOMA)
Lamb is favored to be the first WR off the board and he's my top WR in fantasy rankings. He does come with a minor scratch that we hope doesn't cause a skip. Lamb plays like he's 6'4 230 lbs but isn't! His weight could surface as an issue for him vs NFL corners. With that said he is such a tantalizing prospect. No matter who his QB was they had a top 10 connection in the Nation looking at passer rating delivered. The best way to describe Lab is to say he does it all.
CeeDee Lamb was hyper productive and ultra efficient in his 3 seasons at Oklahoma posting an elite 3.04 YPRR. He's the only receiver over 3000 yards in his career, Lamb scored over 30 times, and his red zone efficiency is ridiculous. His catches went for chunk yardage at the rate you'd expect from a Patrick Mahomes deep threat! Nobody had more catches for 25+ yards in this class and no one did it more often! 26.6% of Lamb's catches at Oklahoma went for 25 yards or more.
It's hard to wrap my head around CeeDee Lamb's production! He tops the class in yards after the catch and in average depth of target. He was the most dominant WR in the class after the catch, deep down the field, at the catch point, and in the red zone. His incredible age adjusted production and how young he is entering the draft are the final feathers in the cap.
The tiny reservations with Lamb's weight and hand size is less of a concern from a fantasy lens than the Raiders would be as a landing spot. In 2019 the Raiders ranked bottom 3 in intended air yards and intended air yards per attempt. Derek Carr has been as reluctant to throw deep as my dog is to go swimming. Last year his 47 deep attempts ranked 25th (20+ yard pass attempts) Just 9.2% of Carr's passes were deep attempts, among quarterbacks with 100+ attempts that ranks 35th of 42 and on brand his 36.2% deep ball completion % is the Mendoza line in that group ranking 21st of 42 qualified signal men.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers
DT / JAVON KINLAW (SOUTH CAROLINA)
Another strong candidate for a trade down but I chose to make this pick for the 49ers because of the value on the board. Kinlaw is in keeping with the identity they've cultivated in the trenches plus the San Francisco regime covets upside, and that's Javon Kinlaw in a nutshell. The 49ers acquired this pick via the DeForest Buckner trade ironically but that had little bearing on the pick. What Kinlaw does is snowball this potent rotation into a more robust set 4-3 weapons. Selecting a defensive tackle also eases the pressure for former top 5 pick Shemarko Thomas.
CB is a frequently mocked position to the 49ers with this pick and their platoon at right corner won't suffice in 2020 but worry not! San Francisco have an elite defensive coordinator who coaches up secondaries like we breath, meanwhile their potent pass rush is propping up the secondary.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
OT / ANDREW THOMAS (GEORGIA)
Last season, Tompa Bay had a very good offensive line... On the interior! Ryan Jensen played outstanding in 2019 and Ali Marpet is one of the most underrated lineman in football. The line is far from fixed though and this is where I see them spending this pick. The Gronkaneers bringing big Rob on board signals they have really decided to go all in with Tom Brady, so yuh best protect his neck. Andrew Thomas also improves the run game to an extent and that should pair well with an addition later in the draft, ideally one of the pass catching variety for Tom.
WR / HENRY RUGGS (ALABAMA)
Denver staying put and selecting a corner is an alternate reality as is a trade up! Most teams whispers circle around moving down in the draft but the Broncos could move up to secure a wide receiver. It would be cool if they traded out of 10th overall one year just to trade into 10 overall the following year! The Broncos 1st round pick will go one of two ways regardless of where that selection falls, they will go WR or CB. The secondary lost a top 5 CB in the NFL with Chris Harris departing yet his presence made little difference for the Broncos last season. Also, you need 4 Chris Harris' on the field to stop Mahomes anyways?
Instead John Elway begins to build this offense by improving on the leagues worst wide receiver depth. A Courtland Sutton compliment, a Drew Lock lifter, a field stretcher and unfortunately, a Noah Fant fantasy breakout halter all in one! Wheels up for Henry Ruggs in fantasy should he go to Denver and don't let folks downplay the situation by citing Drew locks inability to support multiple weapons or the offensive line not being able to provide enough time to allow the deep ball to set up.
I think the undersized, monster hand sized freak will be fine. Wide receivers like Henry Ruggs, Tyreek Hill, and Marquise "Hollywood" Brown are very low probability plays for fantasy football because of their size but outliers exist and we can spot them easily! The adjudication that comparing them stylistically is to say they're identical for fantasy is another story. Because... Patrick Mahomes?
Henry Ruggs is his own man! One of the biggest outliers we've ever seen athletically and his hand size is unbelievable. At Alabama he had very few drops, almost 25% of his catches went touchdowns, his quarterback posted a 142.9 passer rating or better in every season when targeting him and his big plays speak for themselves. Almost 45% of his catches went for 15+ yards and 20.4% went for 25 yards or more.
What Henry Ruggs deserves more credit for is the nuance to his game. He was sensational on slants and crossing routes, Ruggs was equally dangerous after the catch as we was down field, not to mention remarkably efficient in the red zone. Over 20% of his career catches came inside the red zone (The highest ratio in the class) Ruggs scored on 13 of those 20 catches marking a 65% TD rate in the red zone, Jerry Jeudy scored on just 10 of his 23 red zone receptions for a TD rate under 45%. The Yards after the catch element to Ruggs game is lesser talked about but could be weaponized more in Denver than other landing spots. Well known is Ruggs off the chart Yards per reception and average depth of target totals but lesser known is Hank posted 9.0 Yards after the catch/ reception in 2019 second to only Brandon Aiyuk in this class. Just get em the ball!
CB / C.J. HENDERSON (FLORIDA)
Henderson has to get past the 49ers and the Broncos for this to transpire otherwise Atlanta should deviate to edge rusher. Should Hendo be available the Falcons will RUN to the... computer?
Henderson has the ceiling to be special and he forced a contested catch 45% of the time in man coverage according to PFF (1st in the class) Henderson's speed and quickness lend to him translating and if the Falcons hadn't traded one of their two 2nd round picks for Hayden Hurst, I'd propose the Falcons would be looking to move up in the draft to secure C.J. Henderson because they're setting Kendall Sheffield up to fail in 2020 if they ask him to be their top corner.