The Curious Gase of Adam: Is there any Gase left in the Tank?
The coaching carousel had some strange stops this year. None stranger than Adam Gase being paired up with a young Quarterback for the first time in Sam Darnold. The New York Jets proceeded to add numerous weapons for Adam Gase to use at his disposal, making it an exciting offence on paper and in turn creating buzz for fantasy. Lets do a quick Gase study. In 2014 the Denver Broncos, with head coach John Fox, along with offensive coordinator Adam Gase had a historic year on offense. They both had praise heaped upon them for their ingenuity and offensive schemes. I on the other hand, attribute that season almost entirely to Peyton Manning and everything majestic and supernatural that followed him that year.
Adam Gase and John Fox, like Jackson Browne took their show on the road to Chicago in 2015 The Bears came last in their division at 6-10. Matt Forte did produce (a player we can easily comp Le'veon Bell to) 218 rushes for 898 yards, 4 rush TD adding 44 receptions, 389 yards and 3 TDs. However Jay Cutler was QB 21 and the pass catchers had next to zero fantasy value.
Miraculously the Miami Dolphins offered Adam Gase their vacant head coaching job entering the 2016 season. This is when his Jordan Spieth like pace becomes unavoidable. Gase had a league low plays ran at 912 (Jeff Fisher lead Rams ran almost 60 more for second least and John Fox Bears were third to last)
In a first season to spite a slow pace he was able to receive buy in from his players (that he would later lose) He vaulted Jay Ajayi to 11th overall in PPR and Jarvis Landry to the 13th WR in PPR.
2017 was an entirely different season when we see the efficiency fall off of a cliff. While ranking 22nd in plays ran, Miami dipped to 26th in efficiency (4.9 YPP). Gase lost his locker room and decided to make an example of their best player from the season before. Jay Ajayi was put in check by gifting him to the eventual Superbowl champion Eagles. This left Miami devoid of a running game, or possibly Gase was unable to realize Damien Williams' potential. We saw the offense run entirely through low depth of target throws to Jarvis Landry afterwards. Leaving no value other than unpredictable, unrepeatable production from Landry, eventually leading to a contract dispute for Jarvis.
Adam Gase had a historically depressing offense in 2018 still with Miami. He ran only 878 plays. This was the least plays from scrimmage in 13 years, since the 2005 San Francisco 49ers. Again, Gase's Dolphins finished 26th in efficiency last season. This is very important as a team like the Chiefs can compensate running say 990 plays by having top of the league efficiency. The 2005 49ers team I cited was the worst team Football Outsiders had ever tracked at that time. The head coach was Mike Nolan. The offensive assistant of the 2005 49ers (sponsored by six degrees of Kevin Bacon) was, you guessed it, Adam Gase.
We hope a loophole emerges based on stats. With Leveon Bell's historical road game production married with Sam Darnold preforming much better at home in year one. We can likely fade the pass game on the road and conversely prop it up at home. The Jets in the last 5 seasons have a 4.5 point home swing opposed to on the road (5th biggest margin)
This is all to say that investment into the Jets passing attack is at your own peril. I can still show a ceiling for Le'Veon Bell where he plays 800 snaps and receives 325 or more touches without any bias projection. This though, may be at the expense of consistency in the passing game. The only Jet to bet, is Bell. - Tyrell Maclachlan @TNFFtyrell